Swineophobia

Let me first assert that infection from the active strain of the H1N1 virus does indeed cause serious illness which does have the potential to cause death--this is indisputable. However, it is important that any and all responses by the public, health officals and government remain both appropriate and contextual rather than hasty and irrational. This particular strain is not necessarily any more virulent than that of the 'human' influenza virus. For example, with the swine flu 'epidemic' of 1976, more people died from the recklessly synthesized vaccine than from the virus itself--one of the reasons many people still fear the influenza vaccine today. It is now reported that only 19 of the deaths in Mexico to date can actually be attributed to the virus rather than the hundreds they initially thought. Preliminary research suggests the current strain has a cleavage site that may reduce it's virulence. The 'mild' virus would need to mutate further in order to cause more serious danger to the general public.^[1]

Outbreak: A disease outbreak is the occurrence of cases of disease in excess of what would normally be expected. A single case of a communicable disease [may] constitute an outbreak.

Pandemic: The emergence of a disease new to a population involving infectious agents. The disease is spread across a large geographical region and can be transmitted easily and sustainably among humans and cause serious illness.

While the Swine Flu or H1N1 virus may meet the technical World Health Organization definition for both an outbreak and a pandemic, this classification is misleading as the disease is far from widespread. Confirmed cases in Canada affect 0.00027% of the population. Mexico's confirmed infection rate is 0.00036%, while the United States has 176 confirmed cases out it's 300,000,000 people. The actual number of cases is undoubtedly greater, but even if it is one hundred times greater, the risk of infection to the general population remains insignificant at this point in time (less than one tenth of a percent). This begs the question of whether the additional $1.5 billion president Obama has asked congress for to fight this virus could be more effectively deployed for other public health issues. There's a good chance the money won't even provide any assistance to the cause before the pandemic subsides. We won't know the answer for a while yet, but few people, including government, will hesitate to ask for more money when an opportunity arises.

The 'cartoon' model of a molecular protein. The label H1N1 is derived from the two proteins found on the surface of the Swine flu virus: Hemagglutinin subtype 1 (H1) and Neuraminidase subtype 1 (N1).

This does not mean preventative measures by health authorities do not need to be taken. It can certainly make sense for large businesses, for example, to encourage employees to take paid sick leave if indeed there are reasonable grounds to suspect they are sick with any respiratory infectious agent that has a high rate of transmissibility. From a company-wide perspective, this is not just a matter of ensuring the health of it's employees, but it's also a matter of maximizing the productive capacity of the workforce. If a single employee takes two weeks off, this outcome is much less disabling to the company than if he or she returned to work and infected tens or hundreds of other employees.

The standard preventative measures to reduce the risk of infection should always be taken, whenever possible. These include handwashing and personal hygene, as well as measures to maximize your body's immune system such as adequate sleep and good nutrition. I wouldn't plan a vacation to Mexico for next week, but if you already have a trip booked and can't get a refund, deciding to proceed won't exactly mean you're facing "certain death".

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My next post will deal with Human Physiology--the impressive amount of knowledge we've accumulated on the subject and how much we still don't really know.