The bad news is that when a country splits up, the breakup is nearly always preceded and/or succeeded by some form of civil war. Debt holders could be wiped out or suffer significant losses. The good news is that the Soviet Union, the only nuclear power to secede, was able to keep it's inventory of nuclear weapons secure and unused during the process.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
USA: Success or Secession?
It's pretty hard to imagine why anyone would be willing to pay a 90% income tax rate without any improvement in public services. Especially if it's to repay debt incurred by somebody else. Anyone that has the means would simply pick up and move somewhere else. Investor Jim Rogers already relocated to Singapore for this very reason; many others will follow. Naturally, it will be impossible for 300 million people to do the same. The alternative therefore, will be secession. Canada had it's own debates about secession with Quebec trying to withdraw from the country. Americans will have similar heated discussions about the legal right of American States to secede from the Union. Nonetheless it is the most probable and perhaps even inevitable outcome, particularly if economic recovery does not happen sooner rather than later. As I've said before, I think crude oil prices of no more than $20 a barrel will be necessary for sustained economic growth to occur in the United States.
The bad news is that when a country splits up, the breakup is nearly always preceded and/or succeeded by some form of civil war. Debt holders could be wiped out or suffer significant losses. The good news is that the Soviet Union, the only nuclear power to secede, was able to keep it's inventory of nuclear weapons secure and unused during the process.
The bad news is that when a country splits up, the breakup is nearly always preceded and/or succeeded by some form of civil war. Debt holders could be wiped out or suffer significant losses. The good news is that the Soviet Union, the only nuclear power to secede, was able to keep it's inventory of nuclear weapons secure and unused during the process.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
The Precarious Peace
In times of abundant resources and economic wealth, living in harmony, peace and civility is a relatively simple thing to do. In times of economic hardship and resource scarcity, the instinct of survival takes over. I suppose this is why the Obama administration wants to reduce the number of active nuclear weapons in the world as futile as the effort may be. Here's a brief look at the science and the politics of nuclear armament.
The Science
Several years ago, I read a book called E=mc2: A History of The World's Most Famous Equation. In Chapter 13, author David Bodanis provides an explanation of the events that occurred, from micro to macro at 8:16am in Japan when the first nuclear weapon was used against man. It is a visceral, awesome and terrifying account of the ultimate weapon of mass destruction.
The death and destruction caused in Nagasaki and Hiroshima makes the attacks of September 11th seem rather insignificant in terms of civilian death toll, injury toll and infrastructure destruction and long-term effects such as radioactive contamination. Yet these were only fission-based weapons delivering 15-20 kilotons of TNT equivalent. Since then, thermonuclear (fusion-based) weapons have been developed which will theoretically deliver over 100 megatons of TNT-equivalent energy. Tests of high-yield bombs are typically done below theoretical maximum yield to minimize both environmental destruction and for secrecy purposes; the mushroom cloud can be seen by anyone as far as 1000 kilometers of the blast and if below-ground tests are done, the seismic signatures can be detected. Russia's Tsar Bomba, the most powerful device ever built by man was tested at about 50 megatons or 2.1×1017 Joules. It's a bit hard to grasp what a megaton of TNT means, but the image of the mushroom clouds produced below may help put it into perspective.
Fat Man (1) is the 22.5 kiloton fission bomb that was detonated in Nagasaki, Japan while Castle Bravo (2) was the 15 megaton thermonuclear fusion device tested by the U.S. in the Marshall Islands. (Image: U.S. Federal Government)
The peak temperature is about 350,000,000 degrees Celsius--a temperature for which all matter exists in a state called plasma. Steel near the blast epicenter would be instantly vapourized and there would be no forensic trace of any humans unfortunate enough to be nearby. Those far enough to survive instantaneous death would receive severe third degree burns to any soft tissue with a line of sight to the bomb. Depending on wind directions, radioactive fallout could cause hair loss for people hundreds of kilometers from the blast site. My guess is that a single high-yield thermonuclear device could eradicate 20 million people if it were detonated in the right place.
The Politics
Since Hiroshima and Nagasaki were bombed, the world has made well over 65,000 nuclear warheads of which over 10,000 are currently active (the weapons have 'expiry' dates). Ninety percent of these are held by the U.S. and Russia, with the balance in the U.K., France, China, India, Pakistan. Israel never signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and thus does not report on its nuclear weapons program, but is believed to possess a significant stockpile of nuclear warheads. North Korea withdrew from the treaty and is believed to have successfully conducted a nuclear weapons test. Iran and Syria are following a similar path to that of North Korea, but are not believed to possess viable nuclear warheads at this time.
Virtually every state possessing nuclear weapons developed them as martial insurance against a potential nuclear attack from another antagonistic nation with such capabilities: The USSR as a deterrent to the U.S.; the U.K. and France in response to the USSR; China to counter the U.S.; North Korea to oppose U.S. nuke stockpiles in South Korea; Pakistan to retaliate against India's tests; and Iran and Syria to retort Israel.
Hopefully each and every person with the authority to deploy these weapons will hold them as a nothing more than a deterrent and never use them. Otherwise the world will find a new peace without too many humans, if any left in it.
The Science
Several years ago, I read a book called E=mc2: A History of The World's Most Famous Equation. In Chapter 13, author David Bodanis provides an explanation of the events that occurred, from micro to macro at 8:16am in Japan when the first nuclear weapon was used against man. It is a visceral, awesome and terrifying account of the ultimate weapon of mass destruction.
Virtually every state possessing nuclear weapons developed them as martial insurance against a potential nuclear attack from another antagonistic nation with such capabilities...
The death and destruction caused in Nagasaki and Hiroshima makes the attacks of September 11th seem rather insignificant in terms of civilian death toll, injury toll and infrastructure destruction and long-term effects such as radioactive contamination. Yet these were only fission-based weapons delivering 15-20 kilotons of TNT equivalent. Since then, thermonuclear (fusion-based) weapons have been developed which will theoretically deliver over 100 megatons of TNT-equivalent energy. Tests of high-yield bombs are typically done below theoretical maximum yield to minimize both environmental destruction and for secrecy purposes; the mushroom cloud can be seen by anyone as far as 1000 kilometers of the blast and if below-ground tests are done, the seismic signatures can be detected. Russia's Tsar Bomba, the most powerful device ever built by man was tested at about 50 megatons or 2.1×1017 Joules. It's a bit hard to grasp what a megaton of TNT means, but the image of the mushroom clouds produced below may help put it into perspective.
Fat Man (1) is the 22.5 kiloton fission bomb that was detonated in Nagasaki, Japan while Castle Bravo (2) was the 15 megaton thermonuclear fusion device tested by the U.S. in the Marshall Islands. (Image: U.S. Federal Government)The peak temperature is about 350,000,000 degrees Celsius--a temperature for which all matter exists in a state called plasma. Steel near the blast epicenter would be instantly vapourized and there would be no forensic trace of any humans unfortunate enough to be nearby. Those far enough to survive instantaneous death would receive severe third degree burns to any soft tissue with a line of sight to the bomb. Depending on wind directions, radioactive fallout could cause hair loss for people hundreds of kilometers from the blast site. My guess is that a single high-yield thermonuclear device could eradicate 20 million people if it were detonated in the right place.
The Politics
Since Hiroshima and Nagasaki were bombed, the world has made well over 65,000 nuclear warheads of which over 10,000 are currently active (the weapons have 'expiry' dates). Ninety percent of these are held by the U.S. and Russia, with the balance in the U.K., France, China, India, Pakistan. Israel never signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and thus does not report on its nuclear weapons program, but is believed to possess a significant stockpile of nuclear warheads. North Korea withdrew from the treaty and is believed to have successfully conducted a nuclear weapons test. Iran and Syria are following a similar path to that of North Korea, but are not believed to possess viable nuclear warheads at this time.
Virtually every state possessing nuclear weapons developed them as martial insurance against a potential nuclear attack from another antagonistic nation with such capabilities: The USSR as a deterrent to the U.S.; the U.K. and France in response to the USSR; China to counter the U.S.; North Korea to oppose U.S. nuke stockpiles in South Korea; Pakistan to retaliate against India's tests; and Iran and Syria to retort Israel.
Hopefully each and every person with the authority to deploy these weapons will hold them as a nothing more than a deterrent and never use them. Otherwise the world will find a new peace without too many humans, if any left in it.
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