Copying right? The Digital Age of Consumer Media

High-speed internet, CD and DVD burners, personal video recorders, high-capacity hard drive, iPods, mp3 players, satellites and receivers made it effortless to transfer, reproduce and store trillions of bits of data at the touch of a button. Few groups, with the exception of the consumer have kept up with the technologies in their rapid state of flux.


Is 'file sharing' really stealing?!?
The entertainment industry put out an advertisement condemning the pirating of intellectual property. Their assertion is that stealing a television is the same as stealing a satellite signal. The list price of the service could be the same as a television, yet there is an important philosophical distinction. While intellectual property has apparent value, it does not have any tangible value. A person stealing a satellite signal only causes lost revenues for the provider if the thief would otherwise have paid for it. This does not make such a theft ethical; by law the violator could face penalties as if he/she stole a tangible good of equal value. It is still stealing, but it does require the distinction from someone who steals a material thing effectively removing a salable product from inventory, thus causing more apparent harm to the rightful owner. Many people continue to have little sympathy for entertainment executives and pop artists and movie stars that continue to earn millions despite the fact that it is the smaller artists that rely the most on record sales for their revenues.

The Law
The legal process is far too slow to keep up with the latest technologies and proved ineffective. By the time Napster was closed by the courts, peer-to-peer networks like Kazaa and BitTorrent were already set to take their place. The industry then went after the individuals that 'shared' the most content. This strategy had minimal success and created a PR mess in the process. Some of the violators were children using their grandparents internet account to do all their illegal downloading. People sympathize with ninety year old grandmothers accused of copyright infringement who don't even know how to write an email. The approach failed to dissuade large masses of people from downloading illegally.

The Lawmakers
The lawmakers (politicians) are part of an older generation that generally does not use or understand the technologies being used in potential copyright infringements. In 1998, President Clinton signed the Digital Millennium Copyright Act into law. Despite a modern-sounding name, the act did not provide the protections the record industry had hoped for. Less than a year later, Shawn Fanning released the original Napster that popularized 'file sharing'. Canada has yet to pass it's own version of copyright reform for the new millennium, but proposals have been tabled. A version of Bill C-61 will likely get re-introduced since the bill did not get passed before the 39th session of parliament was dissolved. The law will likely not have no more success at curbing illegal and/or unethical copying than it's American counterpart did.

While Canadian copyright laws have yet to be overhauled, the Canadian Private Copying Collective (CPCC) was created by the Federal Government in 1998 to collect and distribute royalties on blank media on behalf of music rights holders hurt by illegal copying. The tariff amounts are based on statistical data of music downloads. The table below shows current levy rates being charged to all blank CD's purchased in Canada. The proposed tax on music-based digital storage media and devices (such as iPods) was struck down by the Canadian Federal Court of Appeal on the basis that the CPCC does not have the legal authority to impose such a tariff (link). Others argue that it's unconstitutional because it is based on the presumption that consumers are not paying for the media on their digital devices. Some even argue the tariff encourages 'file sharing' because it compensates artists. It's certainly hard to believe that someone buying a digital camera should have to pay up to $10 to the record industry for their flash memory card.

	Tariff
Audio cassettes of 40 minutes or more	29¢
CD-R or CD-RW	29¢
CD-R Audio, CD-RW Audio or MiniDisc	29¢
Removable electronic memory cards over 256 MB (MMC, SD, Compact Flash, etc.)
no more than 1 GB	$2
more than 1 GB and no more than 4 GB	$5
more than 4 GB	$10
Digital Audio Recorders (iPods, mp3 players)
No more than 1 GB	$5
more than 1 GB and no more than 10 GB	$25
more than 10 GB and no more than 30 GB	$50
more than 30 GB	$75

Source: CPCC Tariff Backgrounder

The Enforcers
Without entering into the offices and living rooms of millions of private citizens, it's very difficult and in some cases impossible to monitor the massive amounts of data that gets transferred between electronic devices. In some cases, it's virtually impossible to determine who downloaded or uploaded something using an unsecured wireless network from a laptop that leaves little to no trace of itself. Recently, several police agencies complained that Blackberry's (made in Canada by RIM) are too secure--they can't intercept and monitor drug dealers who are using them. The trouble is that if security holes are deliberately built in to the devices, they become more susceptible to hackers. This extremely reliable security of the device was likely the only reason President Obama was allowed by the secret service to be the only standing president with a mobile communications device.

Asleep At The Switch
The CRTC is the "Independent public authority in charge of regulating and supervising Canadian broadcasting and telecommunications." Radio waves and satellite communications typically prove to be a very difficult thing to regulate since they pass through Canadian airspace whether the CRTC wants them to or not. Broadcast radio was not too difficult to control in urban settings because U.S. broadcast frequencies could simply be overpowered by stronger signals on the Canadian side of the border. Satellite radio did not have the same overwriting capability. During the first three years of the service, satellite radio was not officially available in Canada. Still, many Canadians were using the American service 'illegally' by registering 90210 as their zip code since the signal could be picked up even in northern parts of the country.

Another example is Pandora internet radio. The US-based service provides 'radio' stations customized to the users individual tastes. The CRTC forced the Music Genome Project (Pandora) to block its content for Canadian IP addresses in 2007. This did not stop some Canadian internet users from circumventing the block. In other cases, the blocking algorithms on the site simply do not work allowing Canadian IP addresses to access Pandora content freely (albeit violating the terms of use of the site).

It seems clear to me that everyone from lawmakers to enforcers, record industry execs to artists have a long way to go when it comes to adapting and bringing themselves into the twenty first century. The neo-luddites will lose the war against the Digital Revolution just as their counterparts lost their fight against the Industrial Revolution.

1.3 Billion Pounds of Thrust

It flies more than twice the speed of sound. Radar absorbing materials (RAM) in conjunction with fan blade design making it virtually invisible to direct radar. It's the F-22 'Raptor'. Most men marvel at one exuding 70,000 pounds of thrust let alone one fully loaded with eighty thousand pounds of bombs, missiles and cannons. An engineer gets excited like a kid in a toy store at the sight of one of the beasts you don't even hear coming, provided they're on your side. My office wall has a picture of two of them flying next to the F-15 'Eagle' they were built to replace.

On Wednesday March 25, an F-22 Raptor crashed in California killing the test pilot. The cause of the crash was not immediately known but obviously the smallest oversight becomes catastrophic at 2,500 km/h. This was by no means the most expensive crash at $140 million dollars either. About 13 months ago, a B-2 Spirit crashed in Guam just after takeoff. The two pilots ejected safely but the hull was completely destroyed at an estimated cost of $1.4 billion.

I don't think the 1.3 billion Chinese from the People's Republic realize just how powerful they are yet.

When you add up all the numbers, the United States military budget totals about $500 billion a year. While it's obvious that president Obama doesn't have much of an appetite for military spending, the United States' creditors, rather than it's citizens will effectively decide how much capital it can sustain on the military. As we've already seen China flexing it's economic muscle in the past several days just by mentioning concern about the inherent risk of their treasury holdings. The USD's universality is currently the only thing holding the United States economy back from hyperinflation in the medium term. I don't think the 1.3 billion Chinese from the People's Republic realize just how powerful they are yet. The use of military force against Iran will hinge upon China's agreement. China would likely take exception since Iran provides discounted oil in exchange for economic protection. I talked about this 'nuclear option' in previous posts (see America In Recession). Now I think this may take years instead of decades to happen. The world may need to get used to five yellow stars on red rather than fifty white stars on blue.

White Out

The White House, Wealth and the Economy

Larry Kudlow of CNBC always talks about mustard seeds in relation to the economy. The trouble is that his optimism, while refreshing, had been unrealistic over the past year. As I've said before, there is a difference between optimism, pessimism and reality. It's now becoming clear that some of those who were previously labeled pessimists are actually perpetual optimistic realists. Today however, it looks like the mustard seed is finally in the ground. It will need plenty of water, nutrients and time to grow, but the seed has been sown nonetheless. I've penned some Q&A-style perspectives below..



Isn't the market supposed to be forward-looking?!?
Many people have said the markets are forward looking and that the next 6 months are already factored in to the stock market. Obviously they were wrong if they said this three months ago. The reason they were wrong is that the stock market is not some kind of oracle but merely an indicator of economic sentiment and perception. The perception was wrong as CEO's and analysts were continually making downward revisions to their guidance leading to a negative feedback loop in the economy. The popular perception is now much closer to reality now, in my opinion, which means we are at, or near a bottom in the stock market.

What did the Obama administration have to do with the economy?
Thus far they haven't done anything measurable. The market correction paused to determine if the smart guys in the administration had a magic bullet that would stop the declines. They didn't, and when this fact became apparent, the declines resumed their course. Sporatic reactions to announcements and press releases are never a reflection of long term equity value with the very rare exception of events that act as a catalyst for catastrophic events (the Lehman Brothers failure for example).

So the Obama administration actually knows what it's doing?
Not really. In his testimony yesterday Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner admitted that if the administration's GDP growth projections for the next decade are off, the public debt may no longer be serviceable. He emphasized that he didn't see any better alternative to the current direction given their inheritance. He's probably right and certainly transparent; but this does not inspire much confidence in their ability to fix the economic problems.

Is now the time to buy stocks?
Yes and no. One certainty is that anyone predicting a bottom will be wrong. However, my outlook several months ago was that the Dow Jones Industrial average would bottom out in the 4000-6000 range. My outlook has not changed (as it sometimes does), and the stimulus packages could help push this bottom higher than my estimate. I'd be ready to diligently put long-term investment capital to work. Traders beware of expecting large returns and high long-term growth rates. Profit taking will ensure that volatility remains in the markets for the next 3 months as the economy moves towards a rebalanced state. A structural debt problem that still exists in the United States economy should be considered very carefully.

Does this mean the economy is turning?
Yes and no. More job losses are on their way. House prices still likely have further to fall to eliminate the excess in homes. There is still more downside. When growth does resume it will not be a sudden dilation back to 2007 activity levels. On the other hand, the light at the end of the tunnel is becoming visible. Just realize that the path to get there will be a difficult one.

Every obstacle forges fortitude, every hurdle appraises fitness and every challenge tenders opportunity.

-You're smarter than you think.

Economic Stimuloids

"Suplement Me" by SMmeaLLuM [cc]

"The biggest problem with steroids is that you can only inject so much before the patient goes into cardiac arrest."

-Anonymous

Many of the smart people on Wall Street continue to call for more stimulus in response to falling investor confidence. Major executives like billionaire Mortimer Zuckerman continue to call for more stimulus. They say the current stimulus package is way too small and that Washington will need to ask the Chinese if they can borrow more money on behalf of the unborn American taxpayer before the end of the year.

The U.S. debt levels as a percentage of GDP has now has not been seen since the 1940's. The main difference between then and now is that the debt holders then were mostly domestic; it was considered patriotic to be a bond-holder of national debt. The trouble is that now the U.S. is relying on foreign creditors to buy up public debt. Should these purchasers decide they don't like something the United States is doing or consider their credit risk too high, they may simply stop buying their debt. This leaves two basic options, (1) print more money (inflate and devalue the currency), and (2) raise taxes, and several other more complex but less effective ones, such as raising interest rates.

The most likely response would include an array of the aforementioned strategies, none of which are desirable.

"It's going to take World War III to get us out of this."

- Don Luskin on the state of the economy