By The Odds

Could the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 problems have been caused by Industrial Sabotage?

Last year, I spoke to a graphics chip architect who told me that it would be relatively easy to write a "virus" that would cause a phone to spontaneously overheat. I don't remember all the details, but it sounded like something that was dangerously easy to implement. It may take some weeks for Samsung's investigation to reach a conclusion but so far they have not publicly suggested that they know they have no idea what caused the problem (initially they thought it was being caused by defective batteries). This problem is expected to result in a 33% drop in operating profits for Samsung--a good reason to think one or several of the many smartphone handset makers may be behind this. I'll give it at least a 30% chance industrial sabotage was the cause.

All of this comes at a time when cybersecurity, espionage and sabotage are one of the top security concerns of both the private and public sectors. In 2014, a Bitcoin exchange company called MtGox filed for bankruptcy after $450 million worth of bitcoins were allegedly stolen from their accounts by hackers. Countless numbers of very prominent politicians have found themselves victim to hackers of their email accounts. All of this bodes well for Evan McMullin, an independent candidate for president and former CIA operations officer. McMullin's campaign is premised on the idea that if he and other independents can win some states and block both Clinton and Trump from reaching the requisite 270 electoral votes then the decision of who becomes the next U.S. President goes to the House of Representatives. The scenario he would hope for is to win Utah and have Clinton and Trump tie with only 266 electoral votes each leading to an evocation of the twelfth amendment. If Congress remains in Republican control (the most likely scenario) then they could conceivably vote for McMullin instead of Trump given how many GOP 'establishment' candidates don't like their party's presidential candidate. Unlikely, perhaps, but so too was the idea that Trump would be the Republican nominee for POTUS. 1% chance.